Pirates vs. Brewers pick, odds, predictions for 5/15: Lefties are all right

Pirates vs. Brewers

Wednesday, May 15, 1:10 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Despite the Pirates being a better-hitting team against left-handed pitching, they're in for a long afternoon against Gasser. It's not like the Pirates thrive against righties, as they rank in the bottom five in the majors in runs scored per game.

It's going to be tough to rely on the Pirates lineup to generate enough run support for Pérez.

Even though Pérez is not a typical top-of-the-rotation talent, he has pitched well enough this season that he should have more wins on his record. Pérez is certainly getting fortunate throughout the season, as his xFIP is significantly higher than his current ERA. He's only striking out seven batters per nine innings and walking a little over two batters per nine. 

Pérez has good career numbers against the Brewers, so I'm expecting a solid outing here. Milwaukee has a top-five offense so far this season, but I can see the lineup going cold on Wednesday.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers offense might be off to a great start, but I envision some trouble for them on Wednesday afternoon.

As I mentioned, Milwaukee's lineup has struggled in the past against Pérez. I could see a variety of outcomes here given Pérez's high xFIP and his success against this lineup.

Pérez has a running fastball and slider, which are prone to being hit hard if they're not on. This Milwaukee lineup is full of left-handed hitters but still has done well against southpaws this season.

Gasser had an impressive minor-league career and flashed plenty of strikeout potential on his way to the Brewers. Taking a look at his numbers in the minors, he struck out nearly 12 batters per nine innings at every stop. He can sometimes struggle with his command, but the Pirates don't hit southpaws well as a whole so I could see him registering a second straight quality outing to begin his big-league career.

With that being said, I have a hard time envisioning bolt offenses cooking early on in the ball game.

Pirates vs. Brewers

Betting Pick & Prediction

I like both starting pitchers to take care of business on Wednesday afternoon.

Gasser's potential was on full display throughout his minor-league career and in his big-league debut, while Pérez is an extremely frustrating pitcher to fade. The veteran can generate a good amount of grounders and weak contact, but the focus will be on keeping the ball in the ballpark. 

Pittsburgh will need to get used to Gasser, which might not lead to much early success. Combine that with the Brewers' lack of success against Pérez and I'll take the under in the first five innings.

Pick: First 5 Innings Under 4 (-115)